The US economy developed substantial momentum in 2014, with the last three quarters’ growth rate turning in the best string of quarterly performances in more than a decade. The 2015 outlook is bright: consumer, business and even government spending is set to rise. The inflation backdrop is benign, but ex-energy inflation should move higher, compelling policymakers to start normalizing official interest rates.
January 09, 2015
Greece will head to early parliamentary elections on January 25, with a victory for the leftist party, Syriza, the most likely outcome—a prospect that threatens fresh volatility in Greek government bond markets. But contagion to the rest of the periphery is likely to be mitigated by the expected launch of ECB QE.
January 09, 2015
After the disappointment of 2014, growth in Japan is likely to strengthen through 2015, helped by less fiscal drag, improved export volume and—in part because of lower oil prices—a more positive outlook for real household income.
January 09, 2015
The recent sharp drop in oil prices should, in general, help Asian economies. But the caveat is the potential contagion from the precipitous fall in the Russian ruble. In many Asian countries, monetary policy will likely remain accommodative before following the US Federal Reserve’s lead toward normalization.
December 19, 2014
The United States and the European Union announced a new round of sanctions last week against Russian financial, energy and defense entities as violence in eastern Ukraine between the government and pro-Russia separatists escalated.
August 05, 2014
On Wednesday, July 16, the US Treasury announced a new round of financial and economic sanctions against Russian financial, energy and defense entities. The expanded sanctions are meant to increase the costs that Russia will pay for its continuing intervention in Ukraine.
July 21, 2014
Consumption in emerging markets is poised for decades of rapid growth across income lines. Meanwhile, technological advances are unleashing a new wave of intelligent systems. Read out latest thinking on long-term themes that capture big drivers of change in society and the economy.
May 20, 2014
Investors often think of high-yield bonds as simply another component within a fixed-income allocation. But strong risk-adjusted return potential and a low correlation to other investments may argue for giving high yield its own seat at the asset-allocation table.
May 13, 2014
A Grassroots Approach to Investing in Emerging Consumer Growth
Over the coming decades, trillions of dollars will be directed to new consumer spending in emerging markets. For investors to benefit, we believe a new research approach is needed that focuses on the hopes and aspirations of real people across the developing world.
May 02, 2014
Identifying Risks, Avoiding Risks as Growth Continues
Risk assets posted strong returns in 2013, supported by moderate global growth and easy-money policies. Bond investors should position their portfolios for gradually rising rates, and equity investors should pursue the potential we see in markets that still aren’t expensive.
April 22, 2014
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