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Economic Perspectives


Where’s the Incremental Consumer Spending from Lower Energy Prices?

PDF 260kMay 22, 2015
Senior Vice President and Director—Global Economic Research

With only a modest gain in real consumer spending for the first quarter, many analysts are now questioning just how much of a lift will come from lower energy prices. We see the decline in oil prices as an accumulating benefit to consumer cash flow that will be visible in spending patterns over time. But beyond that, the benefits of lower oil prices carry important compositional shifts as well.


Debunking UK Deflation Myths

PDF 277kMay 22, 2015
Senior Vice President and Senior European Economist

UK inflation has turned negative for the first time since 1960. In part, this has been due to falling energy and food prices, and we hesitate to call this deflation in the fullest sense of the word. We find little evidence in recent data or the historical record to justify the hysterical reaction of some commentators whenever inflation turns (or threatens to turn) negative for even the briefest period.


China: Jobs In Focus As Economy Slows

PDF 261kMay 22, 2015
Senior Vice President and Global Economic Research Analyst

Despite a marked slowdown in China’s industrial output and fixed-asset investment—previously the main drivers of growth—there is no sign of panic among policymakers, and the stock market is rallying. Some observers worry about an eventual doomsday, but we believe that the economy and social stability will be underpinned by a sturdy jobs market, provided that the services sector continues to expand.

Latin America

Mexico: Slow Recovery Should Keep Central Bank on Hold

PDF 248kMay 22, 2015
Senior Economist—Latin America

Recent data suggest the Mexican economy is recovering more slowly than expected. That probably means the negative output gap will take longer to close. It also increases the chances that the central bank will wait for the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates before it starts to tighten its own monetary policy.


BOJ likely to maintain sTATUS QUO

PDF 260kMay 22, 2015
Senior Vice President and Senior Economist–Asia Pacific

While it’s all but certain that Japan’s headline inflation rate will print close to zero in the coming months, it continues to look unlikely that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will respond with more aggressive easing. This week’s gross domestic product figures and BOJ policy statement reinforce that viewpoint.


Turkey at the Crossroads: What Happens After the Elections?

PDF 212kMay 18, 2015
Senior Economist

As Turkey heads for an important election in early June, it stands at a crossroads politically, sociologically and economically. The electoral results could play a large part in determining the country’s path for the next decade or two.

Global Economic Outlook May 2015

PDF 171kMay 12, 2015