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AllianceBernstein Library

Perspectives

Future Shock: How China's Reforms are creating Risks (and Opportunities)

How China’s Reforms are Creating Disruptive Risks (And Opportunities)

Anthony Chan
Asian Sovereign Strategist
Stuart Rae
Chief Investment Officer—Asia-Pacific ex Japan Value Equities

China, in the eyes of the world’s media and investment commentators, has gone from being an economic marvel to facing a looming crisis in just a few years. This fall from grace is easy to understand, given the slowdown in the country’s growth, the structural challenges it faces, and its size and overall importance to the world economy. Clearly, China poses risks to investors. One risk in particular concerns us, however: the risk that investors may be underestimating China’s upside potential. Unless investors take a balanced view of the risks facing China, we believe they could experience strong “future shock” in the next few years if, as is still possible, the country succeeds in its objectives.

June 1, 2015

Global Economic Outlook February 2017

Structural headwinds still appear likely to keep global growth and interest rates from returning to precrisis norms. Yet recent data point to a brighter cyclical backdrop for the global economy. Interestingly, Donald Trump’s election victory and his promises of aggressive fiscal stimulus haven’t been the catalysts. When we consider a broad array of manufacturing indicators, including Purchasing Managers’ Indices, industrial production and trade volumes, it seems clear that the global economy reached its nadir last summer.

October 2, 2017